COT Report EUR/USD: The Crowd at Index 0 and One Level Under It

The COT report EUR/USD traders read for the week published on 16 October 2026 had large speculators net short 137,573 contracts, index 0: the most short in three years. We read that as the side not to join. The nearest line on the crowd's side was last week's low at 1.11128. The report says nothing about when, so below is what the euro did next.

This is one dated report. The guide to the Commitment of Traders report explains the groups and the formula, and what the COT report is in forex is the short version.

How did the COT report EUR/USD read that week?

It read as far to one side as that crowd had been in three years. The contract is Euro FX at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, code 099741, 125,000 euros each, and it runs the same way round as the pair. The report was counted on Tuesday 13 October and published on Friday 16 October.

Here are the groups on that Tuesday, with open interest of 874,541 contracts. The first two rows are from the legacy report and the rest from Traders in Financial Futures, in the CFTC's public figures.

The first row is the crowd, with 222,929 contracts long and 360,502 short. It got there by selling: 124,509 new short contracts in four weeks, while the euro fell 3.0%. It was the fourth week in a row at 20 or under.

Read the third row with care. Dealers bought 93,317 contracts in those four weeks and stood at 100 on their own range, yet they were still net short. An index of 100 is the least short they had been, as a share of open interest, not long. Commercials and dealers are also not two names for one group: on one contract and one day they sit on opposite sides of zero. That is why we follow one series on every market.

At index 0 on 13 October we read the crowd as the side not to join, which is Fade the Crowd. So that report ruled out selling with it. It did not make a buy.

Which level mattered on EUR/USD?

Last week's low, because it was the nearest line on the side the crowd was selling. We read each short as a stop above the highs, and under that low we read the stops of anyone who bought last week, and the orders of anyone waiting to sell a break.

At Friday's close the euro was at 1.12381. Last week's low was 1.11128, from 11:00 New York on Wednesday 14 October, after US inflation data. The report holds no stop orders, so all of this is a reading of the structure.

What a member does with that level stays in the course. Here is only what price did with it.

What did EUR/USD do after the report?

For a week it did nothing, then it came back to the level. The week of 19 October stayed between 1.11807 and 1.12607. The count of 20 October had the crowd at index 1, net short 134,524. It had barely moved.

On Tuesday 27 October the euro fell to 1.11221. On Wednesday 28 October it reached 1.11129 at 03:00 New York, a tenth of a pip above the low of 14 October. It held there. After a Federal Reserve decision at 14:00 it reached 1.11694 at 14:45, and it ended the day at 1.11526.

Thursday 29 October carried US growth and inflation data at 08:30. The ECB's decision to keep rates unchanged came that day too: the ECB publishes at 14:15 Frankfurt time, which was 09:15 in New York that week. The 09:15 candle opened at 1.11306 and traded to 1.11042, 9 pips under the level, and closed at 1.11236. To a seller that was the breakdown, with a crowded side. We read it as the stop hunt, which most traders call a liquidity sweep. The day ended at 1.11792, 66 pips back above. We read the move back as the Close Back.

The release moved the pair, and nothing on a chart shows that anyone aimed that candle at that level. Friday 30 October reached 1.12148 and ended at 1.11550. It took two weeks to get this far: a newer report had come out on 23 October, and another came out that Friday. The crowd was at index 0 again in the count of 27 October, net short 143,894.

So this is not a report that called a turn. It said which side not to join, and two weeks later a day came that looks like our read, seen afterwards. Run as a mechanical rule, trading against a hunt did not make money in our own test, and many hunts have another leg. In our test of the report, joining a crowded side lost, and fading it is promising and not proven.

How has the euro's crowd moved through 2026?

It went from a mild crowded short to the far end, with price going both ways on the way. Our index reads the crowd against its own 156 weeks, and each row here is a Tuesday count.

Those from before 2 October were built afterwards, by the same rules. In the 156 reports to 29 September 2026 this crowd was crowded short 28 times and crowded long 11 times, net long in 118. It changes sides, so a reading at one end means more here than on gold, where it is always long. For one earlier dated week on the euro's chart, there is the EUR/USD markup of 28 September 2026.

What did each seat read in the euro's report?

The same table reads three ways, from the three seats.

• Retail sees funds short and a falling euro, and sells. On 29 October that seller sold 9 pips under a two-week-old low, alongside a crowd already at the far end of its own range.
• The market maker, as we read it, sees a crowd that must buy back, with stops above the highs, and dealers who added 93,317 contracts in four weeks.
• The observer sees which side is ruled out. It does not see when, and on the two Fridays before that Thursday it would have seen nothing at all.

What do traders get wrong about the euro's COT report?

Three errors recur on this market.

1. Thinking index 0 means the euro must rise. On 6 October it was 0 with the euro at 1.12584. A week later it was 0 with the euro 60 pips lower, and on 27 October at 1.11245.
2. Reading a small share as a small position. 15.7% looks modest beside gold's 52.4%. Against its own range, it was the most extreme reading in three years.
3. Reading dealers' 100 as long. They were net short 164,763. The index compares them with themselves.

Course 1 of ForexiaPRO, Reading the Map, teaches this read step by step in lesson 1.3.4, Reading This Week's Report.