Forexia

On FOMC: What Price Does Around the Fed's Decision and Press Conference

On FOMC is the News-Induced Liquidity read applied to the Federal Reserve's decision, on a real day from our chart markups. The Federal Open Market Committee meets eight times a year on a published calendar. Its decision comes at 14:00 New York and the press conference at 14:30, so News-Induced Liquidity has two known minutes here, not one.

On FOMC diagram: a tight range all day, then one candle over the top and under the bottom at the decision, and the press conference minute carrying on
Diagram: hours of nothing, then two known minutes. The real day is below.

What does On FOMC look like on a chart?

It looks like a whole day of nothing, then one candle across the range. AUD/USD on Wednesday 16 September 2026 had the Fed's decision and projections on the calendar for 14:00 and the press conference for 14:30.

On FOMC on AUD/USD, 15-minute chart, 16 September 2026: the Fed decision candle at 14:00 takes the morning's high to 0.71395, closes under the Asian range, and the press conference candle carries it on toward 0.70745
AUD/USD, Wednesday 16 September 2026. Quiet from the session break to 14:00. The Fed decision candle takes the morning's high and closes under the Asian range, the 14:30 press conference candle goes lower, and the low comes at 15:15. Real 15-minute candles.
  1. The quiet. The Asian Box was 15 pips, 0.71197 to 0.71343. Retail sales at 08:30 made a 4-pip candle. In the 21 hours from the session break to the decision, two candles closed outside the box, by 2 pips and by under 1.
  2. The pool. The 10:30 candle reached 0.71365, 2 pips over the box. That is the breakout the crowd buys, with its stops resting just above.
  3. The decision, 14:00. The candle opened at 0.71350, traded 0.71395 and 0.71124, and closed at 0.71133. Its high was 3 pips past the morning's and the top of the day. Its close was 6 pips under the box: over the top and under the bottom in one candle, 27 pips.
  4. The press conference, 14:30. That candle ran from 0.71113 to 0.70930, 18 pips, and closed at 0.71051.
  5. The low. 0.70745 on the 15:15 candle, 65 pips under the high and 45 under the box, an hour and a quarter after the decision.

USD/JPY did the opposite in the same minute. Its 14:00 candle made the low of the day at 154.837 and closed at 155.436, the 14:30 candle ran 43 pips higher, and by 16:15 it was at 156.414, 158 pips off the low. We read that as one move of the dollar, not two separate turns.

The Three Seats split the day. The first seat is waiting for hawkish or dovish. The market maker's seat has a tight range, stops close by on both sides and two known minutes. The observer can state that the candle traded over the morning's high and closed under the box. Dukascopy's one-minute candles put the high in its first minute and the low at 14:14. Whose orders filled there, nobody outside can see.

On FOMC and FOMC news trading in forex: how do they differ?

FOMC news trading asks what the Fed will say and which way that sends the dollar: hawkish up, dovish down, the decision against what was expected. That is the first seat, and it is about the words. On FOMC is about the candles at two known minutes. It makes no forecast and says nothing about entries.

Each search has its own page. What FOMC means in forex explains the committee, what price does before the FOMC decision takes the hours before, and why price spikes both ways on FOMC takes the candle itself. The guide to FOMC trading sets it beside the other releases. Other markets on this same day are in the markups of 14 September 2026.

How often does the FOMC candle hold the high or low of the day?

On one Fed day in four, in our count. We took the four decisions on our calendar from 29 April to 16 September 2026, on seven majors and gold, 32 market-days of 15-minute candles. A candle holds when its high is the day's high or its low the day's low, session break to session break, leaving out the spread spike on the day's first candle.

  • The 14:00 decision candle: held on 5 of 32, all five on 16 September. None on 29 April, 17 June or 29 July.
  • The 14:30 press conference candle: held on 0 of 32.
  • The 14:00 candle on every other day: held on 20 of 998.

So the day above is the most striking of four, not the usual one, and we chose it for that. Four Fed days is very few, on one feed, with eight markets moving on one dollar. It counts candles, not trades. A reversal seen afterwards is not a setup, and our own test of the setup as a mechanical rule did not make money.

How do you spot the read on FOMC?

On 16 September the wait is part of it. The box was 15 pips and held for 21 hours, but for two closes just over it, and the 10:30 high at 0.71365 was the nearest level the day had left. The 14:00 candle went through that and closed under the box. The 14:30 candle then went another 18 pips.

What do traders get wrong on FOMC?

Four things cost the crowd most.

  • Writing the Aussie off before 14:00. Twenty-one hours had left the box only by 2 pips. Then one candle crossed all of it.
  • Stopping at the 14:00 candle. The 14:30 candle went another 18 pips on the Aussie and 43 on the yen.
  • Taking 16 September as typical. On the other three Fed days the decision candle held the day on no market.
  • Mixing up the decision and the minutes. The minutes come three weeks later, also at 14:00, with no decision behind them.

Which words does On FOMC lead into?

Three sit next to it.

Where is On FOMC taught?

Course 2 of ForexiaPRO, The Chaos Pattern, teaches this read step by step in lesson 2.3.3, NFP, CPI, FOMC: One Read, Three Calendars.

Related words

Frequently asked questions

What does On FOMC mean?

On FOMC is Forexia's name for the News-Induced Liquidity read applied to the Federal Reserve's decision. It leaves the decision itself alone and reads what the candles at the two known minutes did to the stops nearest price. It is a read, not a way of trading the Fed.

What time is the FOMC decision, and why two minutes?

On the Fed days in our calendar the decision came at 14:00 New York and the press conference at 14:30, so a Fed day has two known minutes. On 16 September 2026 AUD/USD ran 27 pips on the first and 18 on the second.

Does the FOMC candle mark the high or low of the day?

Rarely, in our small count. On four Fed days from 29 April to 16 September 2026, on seven majors and gold, the 14:00 candle held the day's high or low on 5 of 32 market-days, and all five came on 16 September. The 14:30 candle held on none. It is a count of candles, not a strategy.

Are the FOMC minutes the same as the decision?

No. The minutes are the record of the meeting, published three weeks after the decision. They came out at 14:00 New York on 8 April, 20 May, 8 July, 19 August and 7 October 2026, with no decision and no press conference that day.